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Sunday, April 2, 2023

Weekend Weekly Wrap-up - The Rally Continues

 As I stated in this week's Newsletter, and simultaneously tweeted, Sat. morning:

"March may have gone out like a lamb, as predicted, a few weeks ago... but don't become complacent" 

This looks a lot like the financial collapse of '08.  

Friday's action:  

We took out the 4100 target, I tweeted out on Thursday. 

And here's the updated chart as of Friday's close: 

  These were  easy predictions to make:

1. 1st quarter Window Dressing 

2. Last week's pump job was easy, just due to the fact that nobody wants to go short, ahead of a long holiday; and that's why every holiday is prime time for manipulation - for the bulls.  

Here's something I didn't see coming! 

A meaningless statistic being used to grab headlines 

This Fundstrat analyst is a pema-bull btw see: Money Manager Thomas Lee Sees 17-Year Bull Market Powered By Millennials

The Next 2 weeks: 

 Now we're going to see even lower volume - over the holidays - and this is where things become far less predictable. 

The market could continue to hold up, and even press higher, or the remaining bulls... could make a mad dash for the exits - as they try to lock in some gains - only to find there is no bid underneath this market. 

Regardless of what the financial fake news is reporting; this isn't a "bull market", or at least a bull market can't be confirmed. 

I see a couple sectors which may continue to lead a nice summer rally, but the trend on the broader market remains lower. 

Even if the $SPX continues to break out the 4300 target I laid out a few weeks ago, the trend is lower.

$SPX 60 min. chart continues to rally into an expanding ascending triangle - AKA a rising wedge 


This chart continues to work, but that doesn't mean it will continue to work.

 If the market gaps up above the next resistance, and breaks out above the previous high (4195), then it has a good chance of continuing to break out, even above the 4350 level (in a throw-over) above the top of the pattern. 

Conversely, if we see a return of volatility, the market could easily give back all the gains of the past several months, in only a couple weeks time. 

Either way, this sets up for a good trading environment going forward.  

Have a great Passover/ Easter holiday!


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