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Friday, February 24, 2023

Market Update 2/24/2023 - Chart Reveal - The Easiest Call of the Year

 Picking up from where we left off in yesterday's Market Update 

The Easiest Call of the year

Your homework was to find a couple, simple, parallel, channel patterns; 1 on the $SPX, and the other on the $VIX: 

Today I'm going to reveal those patterns: 

1. $SPX - I mentioned that this one should be easy to find", and that's because all you had to do, was check the public charts area, and lo and behold; A bullish parallel channel, in blue (obviously), and the next logical target would be the top of the same channel, around the 4500 - 4550 level. Simple  

$SPX (60 min. view) same thing. Bullish parallel channel (seen in black) 

2. a. $VIX = The second chart pattern I was alluding to, can be found on the 60 min $VIX.  Also a bullish channel, but yesterday's pullback, at the upper end of the channel, was st (market) bullish. 

To be fair, in yesterday's update I referred to a bearish channel on the $VIX, but you could've found that on the next chart.  

2. b. $VIX - (DCS view) Of course there are plenty of ways to look at a chart, and many different timelines to choose from, but that comes with the territory. 

Hopefully you were able to find the easiest call of the year, with little effort, but you should have already had these chart views on your radar, at the end of the trading day on Tuesday, if you want to stay one step ahead of the market.

Yesterday's Market Action  

The above chart views, plus the fact that the $SPX was testing the 50 day moving average, was enough to fuel a nice little rally, on Thursday, but now what?

Well, today is another weekly options expiration date, and after yesterdays return of the short sellers of the $VIX, we see the $SPX struggling to even keep it's head above the 4000 level. 

I must admit I like the way the market rallied off the 50 day, painting a bullish hammer on the chart, yet in Yesterday's update I  mentioned that I was still uncertain about a couple things, and here they are:

Uncertainties Remain 

1. The wave Count. It's not at all clear to me, where we are in the wave count, after only a 1 day rally.  

2. If the latest little pullback is indeed bullish, which sector (s) is going to lead the next rally? 

These are big questions! 

I suggest still playing it a little cautious. I'm diversified with a couple defensive sectors, and even hedged with some shorts. 

Until Europe corrects then I'm going to remain cautious  

In related news:

Maybe hedging with a materials sector short might be a good idea. 

Side note: Most the hedge fund managers, and pundits, you see on the financial news networks, don't even have a chart to their name, and even the ones who claim to be able to chart, don't have a clue. 

Good luck, AA   


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