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Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Market Update Technical Tuesday 2/28/22 - Stocks, Natural Gas, Germany, Tesla, German $DAX, $SPX

It didn't take long to figure out that yesterday's rally, wasn't going anywhere, and I used that as an opportunity to reduce my exposure to this lousy market. 

There's a tech conference going on in Barcelona, so that may have something to do with the lack of market direction, but I specifically saw Germany leading yesterday's rally, in US stocks, and immediately identified that as another suckers rally. 

 Technically. yesterday's rally in Europe, looks like a bounce out of the lower end of the down-turned wedge (seen on the chart above). 

$DAX - A closer look shows Germany consolidating in more of a sideways triangle pattern, for the past 3 weeks, and this is a great example of the directionless market we're dealing with. 

This morning, I decided to check the news and see if I could find a catalyst for yesterday's gap up - and found some fake news coming out of CNBC - where they claim that Europe is higher (6 hours ago), following yesterday's rally in the US.

 This is a great example of why we don't trust CNBC's reporting:

1. European Stocks aren't higher this morning. 

2. Europe led the rally in US equities yesterday; not the other way around. In fact the US seldom leads global markets anymore, and this is why smart investors are looking to invest outside the US. 

Looks like CNBC has since taken that story - from 6 hours ago - down.

Seems like the folks working behind the scenes  CNBC just throws a lot of spaghetti at the wall, to see what sticks, and makes stories up as they go along, the same way Bloomberg does. 

With all the technical experts they have on the financial networks, you would think they would at least report that the trend is down, or sideways, but I guess that kind of reporting, doesn't help sell subscriptions. 

Bullish investors want bullish stories. That's what keeps them interested. 

The only bullish news coming out of Germany yesterday, is that Tesla increased it's production, ahead of schedule, and that might help explain why the financial fake news doesn't want to report it. 


Automotive News Europe 

Tesla's German plant hits 4,000 cars a week ahead of schedule 

What next? 

I think since the bulls are hanging their hat on the 200 day moving average on the $SPX, we can expect to see that level taken out.  

I can't say if that will be tomorrow, or Friday, or on another Monday morning surprise, but that may become clearer to me, as time goes on. 

For now I intend to sit on my hands, and wait for the next signal 

Natural Gas 

We did see another nice rally in Natural Gas, but I think that was due more to an oversold condition, that was created, just ahead of contract expiration.  

I do have a pullback target on NatGas, and $99 get's you all the Nat Gas targets you need for the next month. 

My special offer, from this weeks New Letter is also still on, although I believe our monster rally may have to be postponed, until the broader market finds a tradable bottom. 

That offer can be found in yesterday's blog, under the heading, "The next big trade"

Take Care, AA

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