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Friday, February 10, 2023

Market Update Friday 2/10/2023 - Looking At The NASDAQ & S&P

Picking up from where we left off yesterday: where I mentioned the $SPX 4350 target, and I was trying to recall where I had gotten bullish, and what my actual upside target was.... 

This required me to go on a search, through old charts, and blog updates, going back into late 2022, and if you've followed me for any length of time, you know, I create a lot of charts, and it's not always easy finding the chart I'm looking for. I'm not even sure that I'm going to find the chart I'm thinking of, but this - looking back in hindsight - is offering me some new insight, which is always good!

I think half the reason I blog is just to help organize my thoughts, and look at things from 100 different perspective. Like I said last week, it helps keep me on my toes, but I digress!   

Looking At The NASDAQ 

For instance: Here I am calling for a rally on the NASDAQ, back in Dec. - when everyone was still bearish. Have you looked at the NASDAQ lately? 

The above call required a breakout of the bearish channel, the NASDAQ had been trading in, for the entire year, when we all know that trends are not easy things to break! 

In other words, it was a bold call! 

What Breakout? 

Here's the breakout (of the bearish channel), I'm referring to, on another chart view. 

$COMPQ DCS chart - the breakout is undeniable 

I bet this breakout must have really surprised the channel traders, last week! Also notice the increasing buying volume, leading up to that move!  

It's a shame, I can't seem to find the original 60 min. chart of the NASDAQ, but I suspect it got worn out, after it took longer than expected to rally. If you recall, we did get our Santa rally

$COMPQ 60 min view 

Here's a rough recreation, of the above 60 min. view, and now I see, why I must have deleted it. 

The (original) upside target is still valid, but it may take at least another several weeks.... and that leads me back to same question I was left asking yesterday. How do we get to the higher target, and when? 

Now what:  

1. The $VIX continued to breakout yesterday, although I suspect it will be hammered back down, ahead of the weekend. Friday's are always a good time to squeeze some short sellers. 

If you were following along with my twitter feed, you already know I called yesterday's move on the $VIX with 100% accuracy. 

 That coincided with the bullish hammer that was paiting on the 15 min. chart... 


2. What pattern do you see on the above 60 min chart? 

a. If you don't immediately recognize it, then you have some homework to do this weekend! 

b. If you do recognize the chart pattern, then you know what to expect. 

I'm almost out of time, and I never did find that $SPX chart! 

I'll make it easy for you: 

$SPX DCS chart

1. The Trend on the $SPX remains higher, in a bullish channel.

2. Plenty of support, at the 4100 level (assuming the bulls take that back), 4000, 3975, The 50 & 200 day moving averages, and a golden cross.... to boot! 

3. You'll find the 4300 target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target, and the 4350 target, just beyond that.... at my black line. 

5. It could even go higher, if it's going to take out the top of the channel, some time after Feb. OPEX, - which by the way - is only 1 week from today! 

I think I'll be adding the above chart to the public charts area this morning

Oil - held the 50 day moving average, and is up this morning, but I'm setting that trade on the back burner for now. 

Take Care, AA 

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