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Friday, February 3, 2023

Market Update - 2/3/2023 - Looking For A Blow-off top, in Bitcoin, or Was That the Top?

Over the past couple days I've been struggling with a plumbing problem (at home), and busy tearing  out my kitchen ceiling - trying to get down to the bottom of, where the water is coming from - but I did take the time to analyse yesterday's market action. 

If you were following along in my twitter feed, then you already have a leg up. If you missed yesterday's updates, you missed a lot!  

Funny, this morning I thought I'd do a Twitter-search for the term "blow-off top", and what I found is, not only do 99% of traders apparently not know how to spot one - when it's right in front of them - but they also don't know that it should be hyphenated. lol 

Definition from /glossary

Blow-off top 

A steep and rapid increase in price followed by a steep and rapid drop. This is an indicator seen in charts and used in technical analysis of stock price and market trends.

Assuming most readers don't take the time to review every tweet, here's a quick rundown: 

1. Here I am, saving $1000 on plumbing repairs: 

2. Here I am finally trying to get a good read on the market, about an hour before the close:

That's the "perseverance", I was talking about in Monday's blog, where I gave away some trading tips. 

See: Market Update 1/28/23 - Trade Secrets, and Top Secret Trades Revealed

3. Here I am trying to warn the retail investor that their 401k is about to get whacked! 

Of course, nobody will listen, until they get their statement, and they hear "bear market" in the news again.  This is how bear markets go, they rally back, and people get bullish, and then its time for the next leg down, and that's what I'm seeing in most my long term chart views. 

5. Here I am identifying the blow-off top, and the usual suspects, I believe were behind it. 

The Four Horsemen of Tech -  ($MSFT GOOG $AMZN $META) were all driven beyond their respective 200 day moving averages, and that's all it took for short capitulation, which I actually had a sneaking suspicion, we were seeing at yesterday's open. 

As I said; in yesterday's Market Update:

You don't need a chart to know, this is what bearish capitulations looks like. 

In fact, after yesterday's Blow-off Top, I think there's a good chance we see the broader market start to correct right here! 

I think we could see one final push in Bitcoin, and I can tell you that my (next) target is the 200 day moving average on the $GBTC chart, but it did close on a nice looking Doji Reversal Candle, as well as the Golden Mean ( Fibonacci Golden Ratio) .   

$GBTC Bitcoin Trust 

As we say in the business: "Look out below"  

P.S. See the updated $TRAN chart, has been added to the Public Charts Area 

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