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Monday, February 13, 2023

Market Wrap & A Look At The Week Ahead - Energy/ Oil

 Hey, Good morning, Traders! 

As I mentioned in this weeks News Letter, the $VIX finally managed to breakout last week, but looking at this mornings action, I'm not sure that (breakout) continues. 

The Cost of Protection Just Went Up

Traders brace for a blowup as cost of protection for U.S. stocks hits highest level since October

What does this mean for stocks in the near term. Probably means that now that the bulls have paid for Put protection - the broader market can close near all time highs for the month.  

Futures Flat-ish 

I think we could see another little pullback today, but it seems to me, that the most likely outcome this week, is that stocks will continue to hold up - or be held up by the powers that be - on a better than expected CPI number, which just happens to come out on , Feb 17th,. OPEX, Friday, just ahead of another long weekend. 


Since the banksters have been put in charge of perpetually rigging global martkets, one sector to watch is financials (banks). 

Another sector to watch is - 


On Friday we saw investors run for the continued safety of the energy trade, and there's no doubt in my mind this is where the fast money is hiding. 

Stocks to watch

1. $BP Amoco   - goes parabolic - looks like someone wanted to get paid on their weekly options! 

2. $BP (British Petroleum) the other BP - breaks out above $500 - to a lower all time high 

3. $XOM - Exxon - making new all time high

Not sure when the day of reckoning will come to the oil space, but when commodities turn they can turn violently. 


 Carter Worth came out bullish on Oil, on the Friday edition of Fast Money. This is why I believe retail investors - who are foolish enough to pay for a CNBC pro membership - are net long Energy! 

Why else would Carter Worth pump the Oil - and even the Nat Gas - trade? CNBC Pro

If you can actually chart, and want a good laugh; watch his bogus technical analysis on Oil (linked) in the tweet below! 
1. He points to Sept. 2020, as some sort of connecting point, but I can find no relevance to that date; even when charting a NYMEX futures chart 

NYMEX seen below doesn't even remotely line up with Carter Worth's bogus analysis! 

Next I tried the weekly futures chart. 

NYMEX weekly candlesticks 

I'd never paint a lower trend line like that, in the first place 

NYMEX - seeing a lower pattern line, or neckline

Looks very similar to some of my BRENT charts 


Where's Oil going? 

$WTIC West Texas Crude Oil - the actual trend on oil is easy to spot. 

Looks like CNBC is intentionally trying to steer investors wrong  

Also seeing a bearish H&S Pattern on Oil, as I pointed out last week 
BRENT Crude - mature H&S patterns should not be ignored 

What happens if that neckline breaks? I'd be looking for a little washout below the bottom of the range, just below $65. The Dec, 2021 low was 62.43. If that doesn't hold, then I'd be looking at the Fibonacci target around $53 - $50 even?   

Looking ahead 

I think we could see a pullback on low volume, some time around the Passover, and I think that traders who have been pumping certain energy stocks to new all time highs, especially want to enjoy the, "spring harvest festival", by robbing retail investors.   

That's looking out a few more weeks, to around the end of the quarter, but if we happen to see the $VIX continue to breakout, all bets are off the table! 

Take Care, AA  


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