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Friday, September 23, 2022

Market Update 9/23/22 - Did I Get It Wrong This Time?

  Did I Get It Wrong This Time? 

I see market futures down again, and Germany down over 2%, and that's a little concerning. 

So, first thing I decided to do this morning - after starting this blog - was to chart the $DAX

$DAX 40 - Funny, how bearish traders get on a simple retest of the lows, but this is nothing to be afraid of. 



 I'm not infallible, so there's always the possibility that I'm wrong - about a bullish reversal - but I don't give up easily. Even at the height of the covid pandemic, I maintained that it was going to be used an excuse to print more money, and that the stock market would make, "new all time highs", and this even after more the charts were still broken. Sure, I could've been wrong..!  

It's chilly in Chicago this morning, and when I heard the heat kick on  - for the first time this season - I couldn't help think of Natural Gas prices.

Natural Gas 

NatGas - took some profits here yesterday, and the energy short has been very good to me. 


Not the biggest gains I've ever seen in NatGas, but I'll take it, and look to short it again, into strength!  

 I'm still about 10% - 20% short this market, and this is a good place to be hedged, just in case... Just in case markets overshoot, as they so often do. As we're seeing this morning. 

But what if I'm wrong this time? 

What if there's a market crash? 

Well then I'm somewhat covered! 

But at some point it's time to buy the dip, and that time is at today's open. Not that I want to rush in, and normally I'd like to wait until much later in the day, on a panic Friday, but I think it's just as likely that the market recovers, ahead of the Jewish holiday, and I got shit to do....

Rosh Hashana 

 This is what I was eluding to in Wednesday's update - where I offered you this clue on how to time this market! 

"...trading has been very dull, and you should all know why that is, after all I've taught you over the past several years."

What we're really seeing is a re balancing at the end of the quarter, coinciding with a lot of banking business, including the FOMC meeting, which concluded, just ahead of Rosh Hashana - 2 things you won't hear the financial fake news report. Instead they use emotional terms to try to elicit a fearful response. In other words, the corporate, who own the media, and the politicians, are attempting to shake out retail investors.   

Speaking of Fake News 

What scares people more than the thought of more "pain" right? This is the story they're selling. 

You have to be hard as nails, and fearless to trade a market like this, and sadly most folks today have learned to be reactionary, and soft. Most of you just aren't cut out for this, and through no fault of your own. You've been conditioned to believe the official narrative, and go along, like so many sheep.   

Twitter has turned to shit 

It suddenly occurred to me yesterday, that I'm not the only one finding that twitter isn't what it used to be. It's nearly worthless, but I still use it as a contrarian indicator, and to blow off some steam (rant). Every once in a while I'll throw some useful information out there, but far less than before... 

Reaffirming that point this morning

The constant bot attacks are tiresome 

Moving away from twitter

Less distractions, and less free charting has really helped me get a better handle on this market, and I'm finding opportunities in places I might have missed. 

Something useful I did find on Twitter this morning! 

Here's that LT Carter Worth chart I blogged about earlier in the week! 


The bears are, "eating that up", as in, taking the bait!



Futures were down last I checked 

Not unexpected, and the selling is not accelerating, as Bloomberg would have you believe 


More on the (social) Propaganda Networks 

#StockMarketCrash trending again


As you can see, I've answered much of this in Twitter, but it's good to compile it, and a lot of folks aren't even smart enough to click on my timeline, or read the blogs. 

Done! 

AA 

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