Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Market Update - Oil trades into the Danger Zone

Before I get to the Oil trade, can you believe how they rushed in and bought the dip, at yesterday's opening bell? I can, after pointing out the bullish setup, for stocks, and the real reason why the $VIX remains so low....

Financials even led... as predicted.

Was that the bottom in equities? Probably not, since we haven't seen the target taken out on the $SPX, but you just never know. I don't like that the already bloated energy sector also led.

My feeling this morning is that if markets aren't going to price in a 1% hike, then the fed announcement may be sold, in another taper tantrum. Another, "sell the news event", possible.

Maybe I'm not thinking too clearly this morning, after so little sleep. I think the insomnia could be a seasonal thing, but I am a little concerned with the market action.

Getting to my warning on the Oil trade:

In one of my most recent updates I mentioned Carter Worth, but I failed to mention that he, and the rest of the fast money guys, are all bullish Oil, and energy.

I'm going to show you why I'm nervous about what they are seeing in the Oil charts

I already pointed to this one twitter, this morning

The oil trade has nothing to do with supply and demand, and everything to do with this lower trend line, at 2018 support - Brent Crude Oil pic.twitter.com/KirEg5nLg9
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) September 20, 2022

What's wrong with that chart? The black trend line, isn't valid.

Why the warning? Because there's fast money already buying that bogus trend line, and, "fast money in, fast money out". When their black line breaks, they are going to know exactly what to do!

Without giving away, my targets on US crude oil - and that's why I'm only showing the BRENT chart, and an incomplete chart at that - I think Oil could easily sell off another 10%

Something I just realized is that BRENT closed yesterday at exactly $92, and I think that's not a coincidence!

I have more charting to do!

And if you're trading crude oil, then you need my charts! $100 gets you, all you need for 30 days.

If you need targets on anything, I have the charts you need.

In the real news,

We're currently fighting a proxy war with Russia, and making military threats against China, but in order to please his base, Biden is simultaneously weakening US Military. Of course that story will never be reported.