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Thursday, September 8, 2022

Market Update - 9/8/22 - ECB Rate Decision

 I'm up early, fixing some of the typos in yesterday's blog, and doing some extra charting. 

To be honest I'm not sure what to expect out of this long awaited, and highly anticipated, ECB rate announcement, but the Fed is also scheduled to speak, so in theory this should bring a lot clarity, to what seems to be an otherwise confused market. If I'm right then we should see the $VIX continue to break below the 24.60 level. If I'm wrong, then we're going to see the $VIX break out above 25.75. 

Remember: 1. We're not officially back to normal trading until Monday, the 12th. 2. OPEX falls on the 16th. 3. Sept is a window dressing month. 

I'll be bet you didn't know that the DOW recently back-tested the 31k level, precisely? This is something I only discovered this morning.  

How about that $FAS trade up over 5% yesterday? 

I decided to quietly take profits in most of my positions yesterday, and it's nice to reduce my risk exposure, after being long Gold miners, and short #NatGas. These are super high risk trades, and it's good to reduce risk, at times like this.  

I had been expecting energy to collapse, but instead we've only seen some stops taken out: 

1. Tues. morning surprise (shakeout) in Natural Gas 

2. Wed. morning Surprise (shakeout) in Oil  

3. We also saw the $DBC commodities index taken down below the 200 day moving average, which was no coincidence. It's downright hilarious when Bloomberg reports that, "Oil slid", as if it was happenstance, when they know darn well whoever took it down, in pre-market, or are we to believe that their technical person, doesn't even follow moving averages? 

Anyhow, I'm happy to be out of these trades for the moment 

ECB - watch for the $DAX to lead global markets higher 

This is why I advised folks to chart the $DAX 

$DAX double bottom put in earlier in the year. Trend remains higher. Any bad news seems to have been priced in months ago.  

Take Care, AA 

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