Monday, September 12, 2022

Market Update Saturday 9/10/22 - Just Another Short Squeeze Friday, or Could Things Be Different This Time?

I started this update Saturday morning, but didn't get very far; Picking up where I left off... 

Was Friday's Trade, Just Another Short Squeeze Friday, or Could Things Be Different This Time? 

I believe, Short Squeeze Friday, is a term we coined during the '08 crash; although it may go back earlier; I couldn't find any historical context for it.   

I pointed out on Friday that this looked like a bear trap, and it wasn't long after the opening bell, I was able to confirm it. 

The bears don't like being trapped going into a weekend, and especially, the first (trading) Monday of the month, after the long summer break.   

9 Short Squeeze Stocks That Could Take Off in September money.usnews.com

All the above information I've provided over the past several months, should help you to trade future rallies that take place this time of year, if you somehow managed to miss this one.   

$SPX 30 min chart - Tweeted Friday - shows exactly how the bears were trapped - as the opening bid was raised above resistance.  

2. The market also broke out above the right shoulder I pointed on in Friday's update. 

3. The $SPX broke above the 50 day moving average, which triggered more buying. 

Note: This morning the DOW is set to breakout above the 50 day ma... 


I'm not sure if this rally has legs longer, term; resistance looks like the 4175 level on the $SPX, as seen on the short term chart above, but there's also resistance, at the 200 day moving average.   

I think the catalyst for a pullback could be a week from today, ahead of the next fed announcement.

BofE also reports on the 22nd, after postponing the decision for a week, after the death of QEII.   

 Monthly OPEX is this Friday - looks bullish at this point - now that the bears have been trapped  

FOMC meets the 21-22 - could see a pullback ahead of that. Possibly a nasty Monday hangover, after Sept. OPEX? 

Oil & Energy 

Last week I eluded to the rigged oil trade, but I didn't reveal it in the charts - except on twitter 

This $OIL chart shows where the lower trend line was pulled, and the 200 day moving average taken out as well.... 
$OIL - updated chart - Today we see $OIL back-testing res. at my red line 


So, in hindsight, not only did the market bears get schlonged on Friday, but so did the Oil bears...  

I don't usually like to reveal my personal trades, but I did tweet this on Friday

As well as this... 

Futures look pretty weak this morning, but green non-the-less 

Looks like the $SPX 4100 level is going to be the level to watch this morning

Also watching the short term trend on the NASDAQ - obvious support at the 50 day ma 

 

Oil and Gas drillers have rallied sufficiently into what could be a wave 2 suckers rally. 


I still see lots of bulls coming on Bloomberg to pump their overweight positions in energy, and as far as I know, the fast money traders are still bullish... so I'd look for a correction there. 




Good luck this week, 
AA





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