Page menu

Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Market Update Tuesday 9/6/22 - Natural Gas, and a look back at The Short Squeeze That Marked The Top In The Bull Market

 Expecting low volume/ volatility this week, and we wrap up the summer trading session. I had planned to put more money to work on Friday's weakness, but we didn't see much of a washout. 

Regardless... I'm not surprised to see futures up this morning, and looking forward to a monster rally in tech stocks. 

3X FAANG bear $FNGD to get crushed.... 


I've seen several bullish technicians on the TV, talking about the market being over-sold here, but over-sold is a relative term. It's not really that oversold, but desperate people say desperate things... 

Natural Gas

Something I'm watching closely is the down-turned triangle pattern, I spotted on the short term Natural Gas Chart last week, and the breaking news that just happened to break on Friday, at the lower end of that triangle. 

I'm going to assume the news was released in order to help "the powers that be", manipulate Natural Gas. It was perfectly timed at the washout, below the lower end of the pattern. 

I've seen this story too many times before, when a news release confirms exactly what I'm seeing on the chart. For instance the short squeeze in AVIS, which was based on fake news, and that story marked the top in the transportation index, and Global markets. This was a headline that should have been sold, not bought. 

  $AVIS short squeeze marks the top in the bull market 


Avis soars 212% as investors pile in following Elon Musk's tweet casting doubt over Hertz deal, strong earnings, and a possible short-squeeze

 There's proof that fake news releases, and rumors are used to manipulate markets all the time, and that short squeezes mark market tops. 

  NatGas - trades into what looks like a bearish leading diagonal triangle pattern 

I've drawn out some future targets, based on my analysis of this pattern, as well as some key areas of support and resistance. 1. The triangle itself is a bearish pattern. 2. Once the pattern completes I would expect to see a suckers rally in wave 2 (or b). 3. From there, I'd expect a powerful wave 3 (or c).  

Now for the "what ifs"

Triangle patterns are tricky. They can be bullish or bearish, depending on the position in the wave count, and many times they turn out not be a triangle pattern at all, but rather a continuation pattern, or simply the beginning of a larger trend, as seen below. 

Natgas - triangle, or just a bear market reversal? We're about to find out!  

Support at the lower end of the channel, around 6.50 

Good Luck, AA 

No comments:

Post a Comment